Finally midterm results_ I think

The final numbers are in. The Republicans lost -33 House Seats and added +2 Senate Seats. A weighted average giving each House Seat a value of 1 and each Senate Seat a value of 4.35 the Republicans lost a weighted average of -24.3 seats. (435 House seats and 100 Senate seats)

Taking all the modern midterm elections starting with the Eisenhower administration the average number of seats lost by the majority party, the average was -23.6 in the House and -3.4 in the Senate with a weighted average of -38.578 seats.

Such an average is not statistically exact. So if one calculates the average accuracy to a probability of 95% the means fall between an accuracy range. These ranges are losing between -35.43 seats to -11.77 seats in the House. The range is losing -5.798 to -1.002 seat in the Senate. This works out to a weighted range from -44.07 to -4.53.

In conclusion the Republicans lost what was historically expected in the House. However with a gain of 2 in the Senate, the Republicans can be said to have had a mild-wave win in the Senate. The net weighted House and Senate change can be said to be pretty much center up on the expected turnover range for Congress in a modern midterm election.

NO BLUE WAVE AND BETTER THAN COULD BE EXPECTED IN THE SENATE.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

Finally midterm results_ I think