Life has taught me that when it comes to “intentional overstocking” (I grew up in retail) multiple purchases in smaller packaging is usually the better route in the long-run. Generally I am talking about "lifetime" or "decade" quantity purchases. Sometimes smaller. Waste occurs for many reasons and can easily negate any financial advantage that your oversized purchase provided: Bullets that mysteriously don’t fly true, containers that leak, food that just doesn’t taste right, “accidents” such as moisture or breakage… the list is long.
#1 on my list for not stocking up using the “Hail Mary” method are defects and the concept that the effect of a defect can become so greatly magnified when it comes to my intentional overstocks.
Here’s my story: I spent the first 30 or so years of my life in my family’s hardware store, and the last 25 or so with a manufacturing products distributor. I swear have seen just about everything I have ever sold in my life with a defect in some way…big or small. Literally, it’s tens of thousands of items.
And it gets a little worse every year. Today most retailers offer a “no questions asked, forever/lifetime return or exchange” if a product they sold fails. This is because there is enormous pressure from retail chains and distributors to have a consistent return policy for most of the products they sell. In other words, to get your product on the retail shelf manufacturers must comply with this demand. The manufacturer is making a choice to accept a higher return rate even if the product was not truly defective. Over time, they tend to relax quality control because it does not pay off, and as a result of this, the defect numbers rise. That policy simply gets built into the markup.
I cannot count the number of manufacturers that I know that once had impeccable standards for quality until they started selling to the major retailers. Once the return rates started doubling or tripling due to reasons unrelated to the quality of the product, they had no choice but to raise the price or cheapen the product while keeping the price the same. Most have chosen to cheapen the product line. Fiskars, Rheem water heaters, Delta faucets, Ames garden tools, Black & Decker power tools, and GE light bulbs are just a tiny listing of the brands that have chosen this path. In some product lines, the product stays the same, but the package quantity is reduced.
Right out of the box I’ve seen: Hand tools with hidden cracks, rubber molding that crumbled, leather that was dried out, plastic that was too hard or cracked, Bic lighters that were flame throwers or wouldn’t work at all, capacitors that were shorted, paint that had been frozen, plumbing fittings that weren’t true to their stated angle, bearings that are counterfeit and inferior, really bad tool hardness issues, really bad fastener hardness issues, “stainless steel” that arrived rusted, containers that leak or are defective in some way, solvents that aren’t the expected strength, herbicides & pesticides that aren’t the expected strength, and on and on. I could write a book on all that I have seen!
But what is the real cost of a product that fails the first time you need it? Have you noticed that companies that don’t have an “anything goes” return policy are usually the ones that make the highest quality products? Think about that for a few minutes. There are reasons for this. Snap-On, for example. They make a great product. If it is defective, they will replace it, as they should. But if you abuse it, decide you just don’t want it anymore, or simply wear it out, they will do nothing. I think that’s fair. But what if their product was in a big-box store? Now they are expected to cover returns for all sorts of reasons. That’s fine with me if you make mainstream quality products, but it’s not fair to a company that makes excellent quality products and wants to maintain their margins.
I’ve focused on the hardlines as that has been my profession, but we all have seen defects in other industries too. Reports of recalls (food), financial scandals (Wells Fargo), cover-ups (fake drug results & unpublished side effects), and so forth have become common daily news. Sadly, every aspect of a prepper's life is exposed to these problems.
I have no control over receiving goods with quality issues. What I can do is reduce the statistical probability that my entire stash of a given product will be defective. I do that by spreading out my purchasing over time, and from multiple sources if possible. The goal is to get the same product from multiple manufacturing runs so that if a defect appears, the impact on my stored inventory is reduced.
I’m not arguing against bulk price discounts. I’m just saying that buying a large quantity based on the last tiny discount is potentially not worth it given the increasing chance of a defect. Remember what I wrote earlier about the cost of a defect? That needs to be factored in. Saving just a few percentages on a huge order could really screw you over.
A lot changes over the decades. When one company buys another and then phases out a brand, your chances of getting a replacement almost go to zero. Make sure what you are storing is at least truly ready to use. Take samples, and look each item (or package) over carefully.
One more thing regarding returns: I have noticed a disturbing trend in the last few years. Packaging. Packaging is changing more and more frequently and often bringing with it a new UPC number. For example, 3 years ago I bought a few very expensive Sylvania LED PAR bulbs. They were $15 each and had a 10 year warranty. Now, that exact bulb (same mfg. #) comes in a two-pack for $15 and still has a 10 year warranty. When one failed, Lowe’s would not honor my exchange because the UPC code that I brought with me was no longer in their system. Same bulb, different packaging. Replacement would have been a hassle even if I’d had the receipt. I didn’t want my money back, I wanted a replacement. This is but one example of many that I know of.
Brands, packaging, and the quality of goods are constantly changing. Inspect what you buy immediately and carefully consider the true cost of large quantity purchasing.
Some thoughts about the financial wisdom of bulk purchases
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