Well rounded in a disaster

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Assuming that one knew that in the year 2020 A.D. would begin a persistent pandemic, multiple hurricanes, severe floods, droughts, mudslides, wild fires, earthquakes, weather extremes, urban and suburban riots, rampant rural criminal elements, economic stagnation, impotent and incompetent government, what would you suggest be done in 2015 A.D. ?

I believe that a fortified, disaster resistant village surrounded by farmland would be one remedy to these and other natural and man-made disasters.

Though walled fortifications cannot withstand a modern military aggressor, they are sufficient to deter opportunistic two legged predators, as well as provide security from natural disasters. It’s an added plus when seeking to segregate from a pandemic.

After much consideration, I believe a dual ring walled village is optimal. To visualize, take a line of buildings, not unlike what one would find in an 1890 urban enclave, where the ground level is reserved for enterprise, and the upper levels are small offices and apartments. Wrap into a ring. Do it again. Enhance the exterior wall of the outer ring building. Now you have a central park, two rings, a circular main street, all surrounded by a robust barrier wall, with a water tight, secure double gate.

The characteristics that distinguish the Ring Village from other forms of high population density mixed use development / housing are:

1. Continuous rings (doughnut in a doughnut)
2. Stacked continuous balconies (movement around, as well as up /down)
3. Central park (for fun, recreation, nature preserve, corral or whatever)
4. Ground level reserved for enterprise, socializing, sidewalk cafes, public access
5. Upper levels reserved for homes and small offices
6. Single [watertight] gateway on each ring to control access (security option)
7. Close proximity to resources, parkland, social contact, and vocation
8. Ring street between the dual ring buildings (can’t get lost)
9. Rooftop gardens and balcony planters, to add more greenery, and
10. Engineered to eliminate the petty nuisances normally attributed to high density construction.

How tall? Four to five stories. Beyond five stories may be too high to deal with in the event of a power outage and loss of elevators. Below four stories may not be high enough to deal with flash floods, mudslides, storm surge, and nomadic marauders.

Height Comparisons
Five story Ring Wall - 50 ft.
Tallest Fujian Tulou - 49 ft.
Four story Ring Wall - 40 ft.
Walls of Constantinople - 39 ft.
Great Wall of China - 16 to 26 ft.

The highest documented storm surge in the U.S. occurred in 2005 during Hurricane Katrina, when Pass Christian, MS, recorded a 27.8 foot (8.47 m) storm surge above mean sea level.

How many? Communities have inherent limits on size. Unlike networks, if communities don’t stop growing, they’ll die. According to Dunbar’s Number, most humans can’t maintain more than around 150 meaningful relationships. Anthropologists have found that hunter-gatherer societies hover around 150 members before they split. In Western military history, the size of a military company — the smallest autonomous and fully functioning unit — has been around 150 members. In Israel, kibbutzes vary in size from less than a hundred to over a thousand, but most Kibbutzes have between 400 and 600 members, with an average of 441 members.

If a community gets too big, people get overlooked. And because members no longer face the social scrutiny of their peers, they can opt out of contributing without shame or consequence. Once that disengagement happens, community life slowly begins to crumble.

I believe that a higher number is more advantageous over a smaller number of “Ringers.” With that in mind, designing a dual ring village for 400 to 600 charter members is suggested.

Consider the following natural disasters that might have been abated or dismissed if the locals were dwelling within five story monolithic dual ring village, fire resistant, constructed with massive barrier walls, and watertight gateways.
__ Hurricanes, with storm surge, flying debris;
__ Tornadoes, high wind and flying debris;
__ Flooding, ice dams, rainfall, tsunamis;
__ Mudslides;
__ Blizzards, snowstorms, with high drifts;
__ Ash fall (from volcanic eruptions)
__ Forest fires;
__ Earthquake, meteor shockwave;
__ Vermin, insects, mold, mildew, pests, pestilence;
__ Weather extremes (hot; bitter cold).

The solitary gated and fortified DRV may not stop a modern military force, but one does not leave one's door unlocked and windows open because a determined burglar won't be stopped by such feeble attempts at home security.

The intrinsic security aspects of a DRV with single gateways into each ring do offer a measure of protection against opportunistic predators, as well as providing enhanced security for children playing in the central park. (The gateway to the inner park could be 180 degrees from the main ring gateway, impeding any attempt at a snatch and run.)

Furthermore, the DRV can be part of a larger community composed of multiple DRVs clustered together. In that situation, a post-SHTF gang of MZBs would not be able to lay siege or attack all the DRVs without suffering significant losses. And the loss of one DRV would not spell doom for the others.

The same point can be said for a flood. A single breach of a levee might doom a traditional community. But a cluster of DRVs would not be at risk, if engulfed in flood waters. (In fact, with a little foresight, a drop down dock may be available to permit boats to tie up.)

The concept of layered defense is not new, and there's plenty of archaeological evidence that walled compounds within walled cities was commonplace, to reduce the risk from intruders and predators.

In summation, the DRV might not be a Cheyenne mountain of defense, but it can be a wise precaution against natural disasters as well as man made disasters.

THE HURDLE

How do you find 400 - 600 charter members who can agree or compromise to the degree necessary to achieve the goal?

What shared ideology or philosophy would be sufficient to smooth over the individual differences?

In the past, we know that pioneers struck out and built villages in the virgin wilderness, so it's not impossible. Many even built homesteads like small forts to enhance security from hostiles.

If 600 people each chipped in $5000, the cooperative would have a budget of $3,000,000 to buy land* and materials with which to build their vision. Hopefully, when completed, the Ringers would have no mortgages, minimal expenses, and a self reliant community, able to generate prosperity, for themselves as well as the surrounding community.

(* a typical DRV would fit within a 9 to 13 acre square parcel, which could be part of a larger parcel of farmland.)

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Well rounded in a disaster