samedi 20 février 2016

Re-Thinking The Economic Collapse

First I'm not predicting when or if but a collapse is coming.

There are too many red flags to ignore. One big red flag is what brought down the Japanese market starting in the 90s. That same flag is waving in the US, Canada, and Europe now. Maybe elsewhere too. China?

An aging population. As people age they downsize, buy fewer cars, etc. They retire, are not as productive. That is strike one.

Central Banking and fiat currency is another but only so far as an enabler of debt/credit.

See in this crazy mixed up world producing tangible goods doesn't create wealth; debt/credit does. Expanding the amount of debt/credit expands the economy. I always wondered why when the market goes down they say a trillion dollars has been lost.

Where did it go? Who stole it? If someone did steal it, it is still there. So how can a trillion or whatever number it is, simply disappear? It can't unless it is an illusion.

A lie we've been told and tell ourselves to keep the wheels turning and the lights on. If faith is lost in the credit system the whole house of cards could come tumbling down.

The US GDP is about 20 trillion dollars and there is only about a 1.5 trillion physical dollars printed with only about a third (500 billion) in the US and circulating. As credit and the economy grows at what percentage will sharp businessmen look at the difference and realize they will never get paid. Like playing musical chairs who is left standing and holding the bag.

Who blinks?

That is what almost happened in 2008 and credit is now larger than it was then.

Wages and income have been flat or falling the last 25 or so years and the main thing that has supported our standard of living is credit. How. One way is by expanding the time frames. In other words on to future generations.

It will not be losing faith in FRNs that will bring it crashing down but losing faith in the credit system and wanting to be paid in FRNs and not enough to go around that will.

It is almost a guarantee that at some point the GDP amount to cash will be enough to tip it over. When that will happen or what TPTB does to kick the can farther down the road is anybody's guess. But that day of reckoning is coming because I believe market forces are as much a part of nature as the wind and the rain are.

Having cash will be like having an umbrella and a jacket. I'm of two minds about it; I need more time to prepare but the longer it goes the harder the fall.

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Re-Thinking The Economic Collapse

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