Updated predictions. Second lockdown imminent.

I predicted this on March 12:

Quote:

Originally Posted by GunGourd After the events of yesterday, I have upgraded my estimation of this event's impact. It will surpass 9/11 and will probably get close to depression/ww2 levels. As far as impact. People will lose jobs. The world will be very different afterwards. Business will never be run the same way again. Before yesterday I was pretty confident that while we would see some containment measures, that the overall impact would be slight. I obviously still prepared for the worst case scenario - being contained in my house with no outside contact for at least a month. I am at 99% certainty that we will see a very draconian quarantine in at least one state. 100% certainty that we will see a large number of lax quarantines in almost all states. I am at 51% certainty that I will personally be put under a containment measure spanning at least 2 weeks. And after last night's address I am at 60% certainty that there will be some sort of run on the banks. There's a reason why Trump brought up the capitalization of the banks.

I did pretty good, all were correct except the bank run. (So far.)

All: Remove all optimism you have. This is far far worse than even I predicted.

In person I have been predicting a second wave and second lockdown since February/March. I predicted it would occur at the earliest in November and probably by next February. I based this off of the historical model for the 1918 swine flu.

I was too optimistic.

There is a 90% certainty that most states will enter a second lockdown. There is a 99% certainty that the latest this will be is September. I am moving the date forward daily. I am 51% certain this will now occur at the end of July. I am 100% certain the lockdowns will be more draconian than prior lockdowns. For states that did not have lockdowns, I am 100% certain that all but one will have their first lockdown in this same period. I am 60% certain that most people will recognize within two weeks from now. I am 95% certain that the markets will crash beginning in two weeks and the bottom will occur within 6 months. I am 100% certain that many historically strong companies will disappear, including many restaurants and airlines. I am 95% certain that movie theaters are not going to come back.

Despite the supply chain being heavily modified, I am 90% certain there will be even worse runs on food and other products that were snapped up earlier. These will begin at the latest in one month, and I am at 60% certainty it will be within two weeks. I am 100% certain that the majority of states will reach capacity at most of their hospitals within two months. I am 75% certain that most states and urban areas will experience significant unrest and lawlessness within 4 months. If you think we are experiencing significant unrest or lawlessness now, in 4 months this period of time will look extremely peaceful. I am 90% certain that there will be some prohibitions on interstate travel within 4 months. I do not mean the suggested or mandatory quarantine periods that are in place in some parts. I mean outright bans. I believe there is a 40% chance that there will be a complete prohibition on interstate travel between the vast majority of states within 8 months.

All above predictions are regardless of who wins the election.

There will be no vaccine.

Stock up. Load up. Even more than you already are.

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Updated predictions. Second lockdown imminent.