The increasingly likely scenario of a 269-269 electoral TIE, and other weird outcomes

As the polls tighten the map is looking closer and close to two potential tie scenarios. With the current trajectory Trump seems very likely to take OH/FL/NC, but still not likely to win PA.

But if the next two closest state races- NH and NV- flip to red, the result is the first of the 269-269 tie scenarios. The key is New Hampshire where Trump is further behind than in Nevada.

The second possible tie scenario would be the same results as above, except involve the split electoral districts unique to Maine and Nebraska. Maine has never split electoral districts, but Trump is very close in Maine's 2nd district while Hillary is within reach of Nebraska's 2nd district, which Obama won in 2008 (but not 2012).

Also possible, and even stranger of an outcome, is neither Trump nor Hillary reaching 270 required electoral votes due to the race being close as above, while a 3rd party candidate wins another single state. Gary Johnson has no shot, but this guy Evan McMullin has huge support specifically in Utah and actually has about a 1-in-4 chance of winning the state. If this happens, the race still goes to the House of Representatives, but McMullin as the #3 place candidate in the electoral college vote would be included as a choice.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

The increasingly likely scenario of a 269-269 electoral TIE, and other weird outcomes