jeudi 28 juin 2018

An unexpected Technical Leading Indicator

While I haven't posted lately about my stock market adventures I am still studying charts looking for an edge. And I might have found it; it is to early to say and I don't know how to scan for it. I hope somebody here might help me.

Mostly I have followed volume and price trends through alerts as well as 52 week highs and lows which hasn't been very helpful but I haven't been able to set alerts for RSI or money flow or the MACD which I believe would help with an overall picture. I do use moving averages and bollinger bandwidths but my main problem is coding an if and then conditions that if certain condition are met then an action occurs an alert or whatever.

So I've been burdened with looking at a single indicator for the most part. I use TD Ameritrade and Think or Swim but their charts are different so if I get an alert that seems promising on the broker platform using ToS to confirm using differing charts and overlays makes the process complicated. A case of analysis paralysis which is why I need a routine that eliminates choices which I haven't been able to find.

Purely by accident I might have found one technical indicator that indicates a price swing before it happens but I've only found it looking back and I have no idea how to scan for it.

That indicator is the MACD. What I have noticed is the divergence is usually the difference between the MACD and the EMA. If the MACD is 10 and the EMA is 11 the divergence is usually near 1 but if you can catch it there is usually a one day anomaly where the divergence might be 15 but generally from what I can tell the next day it is back to normal. Again based on limited data the price movement is not immediate it can take a week to two or three weeks to move. I generally use three month time frames.

So if anyone can help me nail this technical indicator down because the thing sometimes only shows up for a day or two.

I will give some examples. MSRT is a marijuana sector company that on 11/14 and 15/17 the Div was out of wack by 10 points and you could have bought the stock for 15cents. On 12/7 you could have sold for 38 cents but the stock didn't really move until 11/21. On 12/14 the MACD pattern emerged and you could have bought the stock for 30 cents. The price didn't start moving until 12/26 but it topped out on 1/3 at $1.17. The volume in this last case wouldn't have helped.

$1500 would have returned $3800 in 3 weeks and $2400 invested a week later would have returned in 3 weeks $9200. That $9200 plus the $2400 left from the original buy returns $11600 in 2 months from a $1500 investment. That's a return of 800% in two months or 400% a month or 20% a day!

I give you more examples but you'll need to look at those numbers to verify my observations. MDRPF 12/8 and the price remained steady for a month but if you had bought in that month on 1/30 you could have sold for double. GLLNF on 10/ 11-13 and until 10/18 you could have bought under 50cents and sold on 11/28 for $3.20. That's 600% in 6 weeks. CNNRF; LBUY one day on 11/10 and wait a month before it begins moving but you could have made 300% in 2 months. MDGL is another that you could have bought last fall for $16-$17 a share which is now at $274.26 and the anomaly showed before each price jump.

Hear is a little different in that it has reverse stock split of 1:4 but on 4/12 three days after the split and continuing for about 14 days to about 4/24 this divergent divergence occurred. On 4/25 the divergence returned to normal until 4/30 when the anomaly appeared and you could have bought for $5.00 a share.On 5/16 you could have sold for $20.00 a share. I really don't know if this holds true for reverse splits though.

I need to get a handle on this to see where it goes maybe there is a scan I can do for MACD volatility.

Any thoughts. Thanks

Katie

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An unexpected Technical Leading Indicator

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