dimanche 24 décembre 2017

Top US General predicts "There's a war coming"

General Robert Neller, Commandant of the Marine Corps, told Marines in Norway yesterday that "there's a war coming".

“I hope I’m wrong, but there’s a war coming,” Gen. Robert Neller told the Marines on Thursday, according to Military.com. “You’re in a fight here, an informational fight, a political fight, by your presence.”

Link to article:

http://ift.tt/2D8kvTa

Some highlights from the article:

Neller predicted the Pacific and Russia to be the focus of any conflict in the future outside of the Middle East

President Trump unveiled a new National Security Strategy last week that cast China and Russia as competitors for global power and potential threats to the United States.

“China and Russia challenge American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity,” the document states. “They are determined to make economies less free and less fair, to grow their militaries, and to control information and data to repress their societies and expand their influence.”

What would happen if there was a 3-way duke-it-out between Russia, China, and the U.S.?

Would it be quick and "surgical"? Would it be drawn-out and brutal? Would nukes become involved? Or--like the threat of using poison gas in World War II--going nuclear be a line that the combatants would be reluctant to step over. Despite threats to do so?

Here's my take on things:

1) The world situation now is eerily similar to what existed in 1914 immediately prior to WWI: 1) Fierce competition between multiple global powers--economically, politically, and today in the information world 2) A former great power in decline (Russia) that is resentful and determined to re-assert itself (think Austria-Hungary) 3) a rising power (China) challenging the existing order through economic and industrial muscle (think the Kaiser's Germany in 1914) 4) the "established" leading great power (the U.S.) feeling challenged and threatened by the rise of competing powers (think Great Britain in 1914 confronting Germany)

One can even imagine a scenario today, similar to what happened in the summer of 1914. Where an incident in a small country in some corner of the world, leads to a Great Power blow-up. (It was Serbia in 1914. It could be something with North Korea today).

And instead of a terrorist incident involving a guy with a pistol, what about a massive cyber-attack on the U.S. by North Korea?

Thoughts? Opinions?

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Top US General predicts "There's a war coming"

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