First and Second order chaotic systems.

I was reading a book "Sapiens" and it introduced to me a new terminology.

First and Second order chaotic systems.

A first order chaotic systems is something like the weather, which is so complex with so many variables it cannot be predicted very accurately.

A second order chaotic system is something like the Economy, where the very act of making a prediction, changes the outcome, which means not only are predictions hard to make, even if they where accurate, they would change the results so as to no longer be so.

I think this is a useful concept for survivalists to bear in mind. Corona virus is a good example. The CDC predicts hundreds of thousands of deaths, so we change our behavior to get ready for that....which changes the outcome so it never happens.

Or they predict it will take years to make a vaccine, which spurs vaccine makers to find a faster way...etc.

Consider an election, one side is predicted to win, so the other side turns out in larger numbers and instead they win. Was the prediction wrong? Or was it the prediction that dictated the outcome?

This will sound very familiar to the physicists of the group. On a the subatomic scale its known as the uncertainty principle. You cannot measure anything perfectly as the very act of making the measurement changes the position and speed of what you are trying to measure.

This could apply to almost all discussions about 'what if's' though. Not only is the future hard to predict, some things are impossible to predict as the very action of making an accurate prediction changes the outcome.

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First and Second order chaotic systems.