lundi 18 mai 2020

Looking into my fuzzy crystal ball...

The upcoming recession...try to keep up with my random thoughts.

Victims, 36 million unemployed, major Airlines, car rentals (Hertz), privately owned resturaunts, tourist destinations, hotels/motels low petro energy prices offset by higher food prices.

Retail malls impacted as tenants can't pay rent, Mall developer can't make mortgage payments. Bank which sold the debt to Wall Street who resold the security backed debt to investors who discover their investment isn't paying and may be worthless for a bit.

Circling back to Hertz, they own 500K vehicles. If they go under and file bankruptcy, the value of used vehicles will tank based on the laws of supply and demand as 36 million people aren't driving to work or buying gas. Car dealerships are cutting back on orders so that a temporary over supply is building even with factories closed.

The restaurant business is tough with slim margins. I see more than a few bankruptcy filings with assets going to court ordered local auctions. Speaking of auctions, the ranchers and animal growers are seeing supply chain disruptions as the local processing facility/locker plant/slaughter house (pick your own verbiage) have been closed down. Pet food prices will jump as well as by product supplies will be impacted.

So when it gets tough people sacrifice. Boats, RVs, ATVs, motorcycles, and other toys are shed at a larger than normal discount. Divorce rates spike and so do suicides unfortunately.

My apogies for sounding negative, allow me to add we're all Americans and we always find a way to not only to just survive but also to thrive.

PS: Staying ahead of the curve food wise. Freezer appliance shortage, seed shortage, will there be a vacuum sealer bag material and/or canning supply jar or lid shortage? Just sayin'...

Your thoughts?

Let's block ads! (Why?)



Looking into my fuzzy crystal ball...

Aucun commentaire:

Enregistrer un commentaire